By Belize Live News Staff: With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season set to begin this Sunday, June 1, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal season — but meteorologists and emergency officials are warning Belizeans not to be lulled into complacency.
NOAA’s outlook puts a 55% probability on a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season. Forecasters are predicting 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 expected to reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 projected to become major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph.
The primary driver behind the quieter forecast is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions during the season, which typically suppresses Atlantic storm formation. However, slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could partially counteract that effect — leaving room for meaningful storm activity.
For Belize, which sits squarely in the western Caribbean corridor, the forecast offers some relief but no guarantee of safety. The country’s low-lying coastline, offshore cayes, and river-adjacent communities remain vulnerable even in quieter seasons.
“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham warned. Belizeans can monitor storm activity at hurricanes.gov and through NOAA’s @NHC_Atlantic on X. The first named storm, if it develops, will be called Arthur.
