By Belize Live News Staff: Today is June 1st. Hurricane season is officially here. And for the first time in several years Belize and the wider Caribbean are entering the season with a genuine scientific reason for cautious optimism.
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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from today through November 30th with storm activity peaking in mid September. But this year a powerful climate phenomenon is working in the Atlantic’s favour and potentially in Belize’s.
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That phenomenon is El Nino.
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Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a quieter than usual Atlantic hurricane season largely due to El Nino. They see a 55 percent chance of below normal activity, a 35 percent chance of near normal and a 10 percent chance of above normal.
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So what exactly is El Nino and why does it matter for Belize?
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El Nino is the periodic warming of surface sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. When El Nino is active it disrupts the atmospheric conditions that normally allow hurricanes to grow and strengthen over the Atlantic. El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while La Nina does the opposite, producing more and stronger Atlantic hurricanes.
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Historically there has been a 60 percent reduction in the number of hurricane days during an El Nino phase. Those are genuinely encouraging numbers for a country like Belize that sits directly in the path of Atlantic storm systems.
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But here is where every Belizean needs to pump the brakes on any sense of complacency.
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NOAA Director Ken Graham warned that although El Nino suppresses hurricane development there is still uncertainty in how each season unfolds.
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“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” he said.
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Belize knows that truth better than most. Hurricane Hattie in 1961 nearly erased Belize City from the map. Keith devastated the north in 2000. Earl cut across the country in 2016. Not one of those storms cared about the seasonal forecast before it formed.
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The science is on our side this season. But a quieter season is not a safe season.
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Prepare now. Know your evacuation route. Stock your emergency supplies. Follow official channels throughout the season.
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Hurricane season is here Belize. Do not wait for a storm to take it seriously.
